Clarifying Uncertainty Measurements

Techniques to Communicate Uncertainty Effectively
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‍ 1. Use Concrete Examples and Analogies: One way to clarify the concept of scientific uncertainty is to use concrete examples or analogies that people can relate to. For instance, comparing the uncertainty in climate change predictions to the unpredictability in tossing a loaded dice could help explain the concept. The dice will not yield a completely random outcome, but neither can the result be predicted with certainty. Similarly, climate models provide a range of possible outcomes, not exact predictions.

2. Visualize the Data: Visual representations can help communicate uncertainty in a more intuitive and comprehensible way. Instead of presenting raw numbers or percentages, scientists could use graphs, charts, or infographics to illustrate uncertainty. 

For example, a 'confidence interval' can be visually represented as a range on a bar graph, providing a clearer picture of the extent and impact of uncertainty. Weather forecasts often use maps with gradient colors to show the areas of greatest uncertainty.

3. Framing Uncertainty as a Range of Outcomes: Uncertainty can be less daunting if it's framed as a range of possible outcomes rather than a single definitive result. This approach acknowledges the inherent variability in scientific predictions and helps avoid the pitfall of appearing to make un-kept promises. For instance, when predicting sea level rise, scientists might provide a range from the best-case scenario to the worst-case scenario, making it clear that the actual rise could fall anywhere within this range. 

Communicating uncertainty is a complex but crucial aspect of science communication. By refining our communication techniques, we can demystify the concept of scientific uncertainty and help the public appreciate it not as a shortfall but as an integral part of the scientific process. With these tools, we can work towards fostering a public understanding of science that is not just based on facts and figures, but also appreciates the nuances and complexities of scientific exploration. 

Please contact us through the link below if you would like to host a training workshop for your scientists to learn more about how audiences receive information about uncertainty and practice techniques that convey uncertainty in ways that boost audience comprehension.